I'm no historian, but I feel confident enough to make the following prediction:  Based on several trends in human history, oil will eventually be unnecessary and irrelevant, thereby solving most current world conflicts and corruption, but also creating several completely new ones.  After reading through this Forbes article about the world's most corrupt countries, it seems like somewhere around 75% of the corrupt nations became corrupt because of their natural supply of underground oil.  And because of rich nations' competitive need for oil, these otherwise poor, oil-rich countries have a steady flow of money, but very little governmental regulation and transparency.  Putting tons of money into the hands of a few unwatched people is a great way to breed corruption. 

Now for the history part:  Oil is a relatively new commodity.  Even 100 years ago, there was quite a bit less demand for it.  Going back 150 years, I doubt there was any demand at all.  Instead, there was demand for sugar cane, tobacco, and gunpowder.  Going back another 150 years, there was demand for spices and fabrics.  [These two facts might not be completely historically accurate, but you get the idea.]  Looking at any major time period in history, there was something everyone wanted, only a select few could get, and so everyone fought over it.  Gold.  Land.  Military strength. 

I wonder what's it's gonna be in a few years.  I doubt there could really be much confidence even if we were able to make a prediction.  I doubt there were people in the Middle East in the 1890s saying, "You just wait.  In a few years, people will be begging us for this black liquid."  What's it gonna be in 2050?  If history tells us anything, it tells us there's pretty much no pattern or logic.  Sure, each commodity was something useful and was worth good money.  But as quickly as tobacco became the world's favorite crop, it became the bane of our existence when we finally figured out its relationship to lung cancer and heart disease.  My prediction:  Oil's replacement will be something that seems useless right now but which would provide a benefit if there was enough of a use for it.  I'm thinking something like mud.  Or maybe ice.  Think of all the wars that could be fought to get some valuable real estate in Antarctica for the purposes of mining ice. #business